Peperangan Matawang semakin rancak

Pihak ECB, Euro Central Bank telah mengumumkan perancangan dan pelaksanaan QE, Quantitative Easing mereka. Kononnya tindakan ini bertujuan untuk merancakkan ekonomi mereka. Walhal, ekonomi mereka semakin merudum bermula dari memboikot Russia, kejatuhan harga minyak, pengapungan matawang Switzerland dan kemungkinan mereka akan kehilangan 100% pinjaman yang telah dihulurkan kepada Greece (lihat catatan saya di sini apa akan berlaku bila ekonomi Eropah bermasalah dan tindakan yang telah saya lakukan).

Sebanyak EUR60 Billion (bersamaan USD67 Billion) akan dicetak daripada Mac 2015 sehingga September 2016. Pihak ECB mengikut jejak langkah FED, Federal Reserve Bank dari USA yang juga mengambil langkah yang sama apabila ekonomi USA jatuh merudum pada tahun 2009. FED juga memastikan kadar pinjaman di USA tetap rendah sehingga hampir sifar. Oleh itu, pihak pelabur terpaksa mencampakkan wang tersebut ke luar negara untuk memberikan pulangan yang lebih tinggi. Sesetengah syarikat gergasi pula menggunakan peluang tersebut untuk menyusun kewangan mereka dengan mengeluarkan bon-bon dan membeli balik saham mereka. Ini juga mengakibatkan saham-saham mereka naik secara berterusan. Langkah FED juga mengakibatkan negara-negara sedang membangun termasuk ASEAN dibanjiri dengan wang murah, dan tinggi kecairan dalam negara tersebut.

Kesannya telah kita alami di mana, mereka yang pintar telah menggunakan kadar pinjaman yang rendah untuk melabur di dalam pasaran hartanah. Sementara mereka yang kurang cerdik terpinga-pinga dan ketinggalan seperti ketinggalan kapal berlayar.

Persoalannya sekarang, ke mana wang murah daripada negara Eropah ini akan pergi? Kadar simpanan di USA masih sangat rendah sementara sesetengah negara Eropah mengenakan kadar simpanan yang negatif! Kadar matawang Euro juga semakin rendah berbanding US dollar. Ini juga bermakna negara-negara sedang membangun tidak akan berminat menambah simpanan matawang Euro. Jadi ke mana wang murah Euro ini akan dilaburkan?

Terdapat satu faktor utama yang berbeza keadaan di Malaysia berbanding semasa FED melakukan QE iaitu kadar pinjaman Isi Rumah (household) pada masa tersebut masih rendah berbanding GDP. Sekarang kadar pinjaman Isi Rumah berbanding GDP masih sangat tinggi. Jadi jika para pelabur Eropah ingin mencampakkan wang mereka ke Malaysia, adakah ramai orang yang akan meminjamnya. Tambahan pula kerajaan telah memperkenalkan pelbagai langkah untuk memperketatkan kecairan kewangan negara.

Tetapi yang pastikan kos bahan mentah dan kehidupan seharian tetap akan meningkat naik kerana sandaran EMAS berbanding simpanan US dollar negara yang sangat kecil. Tambahan pula, terdapat pihak-pihak yang akan cuba mengekang kenaikan harga emas agar matawang mereka tidak akan menjadi sampah! Kesannya, matawang Malaysia pula yang akan susut nilai menyebabkan kos pembelian barang dari luar negara akan tetap naik. Dan rakyat akan menyalahkan kerajaan walhal penyangak ekonomi di luar negara yang bertanggungjawab!

Jadi, apakah perubahan perancangan pelaburan hartanah yang perlu dilakukan agar kita sentiasa terlindung dan tetap bertambah nilainya?

Patient for Luxury always Rewarding

I have been using Samsung Galaxy SII for almost three years. It really helped me to organized my property investment, my official work and personal activities. I spent almost a thousand RM to buy it. One of the main reasons I upgrade my smartphone from Nokia N95 three years ago was there were better apps being introduced in android OS such as google maps, calender, email, google drives etc. I saw the potential in the device and so I invest in it. However, I did not simply bought SII when the product was launched in the market! Instead, I wait for a few years until the price was reasonable to drop from more than RM2xxx to about RM1xxx.

Now, my SII has a major problem where it is very hot when I use dataplan or wifi. And the device is also very hot when I want to charge it. Thus, I have to switch off the phone when I charge the device. As a result, many of my family, friends and business contacts have difficulty to keep me in touch. After waiting and surveying for almost one month, I finally shortlist to buy either Lenovo, Asus or Samsung smartphone. My family has been using Lenovo (4 units) for the past one year without any major problem. While Samsung products are too expensive and Asus has not really being tested in the market. To make matter worst, Asus is using Atom Intel processor which produce a lot of heat for a smartphone.

Next, I shortlist a few of Lenovo models which are S850, S90 Vibe X2 and P780. Lenovo S series are mostly for entertainment. Hence, the camera has the highest resolution among the families. Vibe family has the most powerful processor and memory capacity. But, both combination definitely can quickly drain the battery. Meanwhile, P780 has large battery capacity which is 4000 mAh. It was built for business people on the move. However, I have no experience using any of P series or family members. I read one blog where the purchaser proudly wrote about her experience buying and using P780. You can read about it at http://norfarahinilias.blogspot.com/2014/01/review-smartphone-lenovo-p780.html?showComment=1420993829210#c3565811985007636813.

She bought P780 in January 2014 for RM900. Whereas, I bought the same model for only RM630 original and with 8GB internal data storage! I also purchased an additional 16GB SD card class 10 for RM30.

So, this is another example it is always pay to wait to buy any luxury item! By the way, I also teach how to use smartphone to manage and optimize your property investment. This is normally being taught for advance short course participants.

Happy New Year - Setting your property investment goal this year

I think it is not too late to wish happy new year to all my blog readers. Each new year should give us more inspiration to achieve something greater than the previous year. It is a new beginning, a refresh and energized our spirit to reach something seems impossible.

But, before we set our new goals, have we analyzed our past mistakes, miss opportunities and reluctance to take action. Are our weaknesses just due to lack of capital or is it because our refusal to learn from those who already succeed to achieve their dreams. Do we really think we have sufficient knowledge to achieve our goals? If so, why our dream is still beyond our reach? Are we shrewd enough to be innovative in making our investment? Or are we just regular guys who invest based on the current investment flow?

Based on current perception, Malaysia and all around the world are going to face recession. Some analyst predict the economy meltdown will be worst than 2008. Here are what we can easily see: as long as the new pre-cold war persist between USA, Europe and Russia, their economy will not getting better. Oil prices will keep dropping which will drag down a lot of financial and related oil and gas companies. This also means Malaysia has less demand for her products.

After 2008 financial crisis, Malaysia stimulate her economy by lowering the BLR. BNM learned this important strategy after 1998 financial crisis. As a result, a lot of people buy properties especially new ones. Developers were eager to launch new development. The secondary economy benefited a lot from the new property development as new home owners need to buy new furniture, renovation, cooking equipment, security etc. The economy multiplying effect is more than ten times the amount of property being sold. Hence, the GDP growth was maintained at respectable rates.

However, this time around it is not easy to repeat the same strategy because total household debt to GDP is already too high which is more than 80% (86.8% as of November 2014). Malaysia has one of the highest household debt to GDP in South East Asia countries. This is one of the reasons many economy analysts suggest there will be great down turn in property investment activities due to potential recession Malaysia may faced. One thing for sure, BNM will not let 1998 history to repeat again. So, BNM will not simply throw away the current strategy. Instead, BNM is in the process to modify the current strategy. And this is where Base Rate (BR) came in to replace Base Lending Rate (BLR).

So, have you reevaluate your investment strategy? Economy down turn does not mean there is no economy activity at all. It does not make sense which make me surprised when an economist professor said so. He might be intelligent but he definitely not a practical man. People still need to eat, buy foods, clothes, car, houses etc. This also means there still a lot of property investment opportunities out there if you believe they exists. So, you should adjust your strategy, learn new tricks and make you investment. For me, this year, I should buy at least a property to increase my investment portfolio.

GO HUNT FOR YOUR PROPERTY INVESTMENT!

Preparing for the Worst Case Scenerio

Many people make bad decisions by assuming their lives are always good and sweet stories. Most people who fall in bad situation are the people who never consider any worst condition. I am not only taking about investment, but our lives in general. The recent worst floods in Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang showed the mentality of average and most people in similar background. I am not talking just about the population, but also those who are in commands at various levels. Interestingly, I have never seen any of those in higher power especially at the affected states shown that they have appointed any academician to make 100 years study of floods in their respective areas. Their study should be correlated to various parameters such as weather, current tides, moon position, ecological disturbance, people living locations etc. Most of the feedback I received from those who being on the affected areas shows the floods were worst than before. But, I did heard something interesting from Terangganu but the plan was not executed fast enough.

In property investment, we cannot simply make assumption and calculation in our head. There are only a limited number of possibilities or scenarios we can calculate using our internal head. But, as the number of scenarios grows our head can easily get confuse. To make thing worst, our feeling will easily influence our logical decision. If we seriously want to make a property investment, we should reach out for something look impossible to be done. What are the rewards between something impossible to invest with something very easy to invest. It is a good motivation to go ahead.

However, no matter how much is the investment, it is always a good practice to write down your investment scenarios: the best and worst scenarios. You will be surprised that by writing them down, you will find new possible solutions. You may also write down the possible solutions so that by the time you really need the solutions, they are readily available. Normally, when people already in trouble, their mind is not clear enough to think the correct solutions.

As what happen during the floods, there were some comments made by those who don't understand the behavior of those who were hit by the flood. Some of them don't even bother to work together with the volunteers to cook, pray, adjusting their lives and so on. They are actually in a great shock that they cannot think of anything. They need counselors!

So, if you have never consider the worst case scenarios in your property investment, by the time one of the worst case scenarios really occurred, you may be like those who were hit by the flood! Blank!